On Sunday, a research group known as Citrini Research released a striking analysis outlining how the rise of agentic AI might trigger widespread economic disruption within the next two years. The scenario is framed as a report from two years in the future, describing a world where unemployment has doubled and the stock market’s total value has dropped by over one-third. The report describes a self-reinforcing cycle:

AI capabilities advanced, companies required fewer employees, white-collar layoffs rose, displaced workers reduced spending, margin pressures drove firms to invest further in AI, and AI capabilities advanced again…

This created a negative feedback loop without a natural stopping point…The economy essentially became a long chain of interconnected bets on white-collar productivity growth. This presents a new kind of bearish outlook, centered not on a Skynet-like AI rebellion but on the slow unraveling of the economic system itself.

Specifically, the Citrini scenario examines the consequences of widely integrating AI agents across the economy, particularly when outside contractors are replaced by more affordable, in-house AI. While reminiscent of the so-called "Death of SaaS" narrative, Citrini extends the argument further, suggesting that any business model built on optimizing transactions between companies could be at risk.

Unsurprisingly, the report has sparked considerable discussion online. Not everyone is convinced—even Citrini frames it more as a plausible scenario than a firm prediction—yet pinpointing exactly where the logic breaks down is challenging. From a personal standpoint, I doubt companies are prepared to fully delegate purchasing decisions to AI agents, regardless of their sophistication. However, in Citrini’s scenario, many of these affected decisions have already been outsourced to third-party contractors, making the shift to AI somewhat less far-fetched than it might initially appear.