A useful method for gauging the pace of the artificial intelligence expansion is to observe the hardware supply chain. Nvidia serves as the prime illustration: AI firms are constructing extensive data centers and purchasing billions of dollars in GPUs every month, elevating Nvidia to the position of the world's most valuable company. However, Nvidia itself relies on suppliers, and examining them can provide an even more forward-looking perspective on the market.

This is precisely why attention turns to ASML, a Dutch photolithography firm that has emerged as a critical cornerstone for the semiconductor sector. ASML holds a unique position as the only provider of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment required to manufacture the most advanced chips, establishing it as an essential supplier across the entire industry. Strong performance from ASML typically indicates that companies are anticipating robust semiconductor sales.

Judging by the quarterly results released on Wednesday morning, the company is performing exceptionally well. The headline figure is net sales of 32.7 billion euros, a substantial sum by any measure. Yet for understanding future trends, the most significant number is "new bookings," which reflects the volume of new orders received during the quarter. Analyzing these orders reveals how much production capacity chipmakers believe they will require, based on the demand they expect from upcoming data center construction in the years ahead.

By this crucial metric, the AI infrastructure surge shows no signs of slowing. Last quarter, ASML secured new orders valued at 13 billion euros, setting a company record and more than doubling the orders from the previous quarter. In a statement accompanying the earnings, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet explicitly linked this increased demand to artificial intelligence. "In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand," Fouquet stated.

Put simply, this means their clients are confident that AI laboratories will genuinely require all the data centers currently being planned, leading them to invest now to ensure they can supply the necessary chips. It is important to note that none of this is a certainty. The future remains unpredictable. It could take years to fulfill all these orders, and some customers might cancel before delivery.

Potential downturns, including some pessimistic forecasts, could still materialize and disrupt this growth. However, for anyone anticipating that companies will scale back their projected trillions in infrastructure spending, it appears the wait may be considerably longer.